Self-Organized Criticality of Precipitation in the Rainy Season in East China

Abstract

Based on daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2017 in the rainy season in east China, to a given percentile threshold of one observation station, the time that precipitation spends below threshold is defined as quiet time τ. The probability density functions τ in different thresholds follow power-law distributions with exponent β of approximately 1.2 in the day, pentad and ten-day period time scales, respectively. The probability density functions τ in different regions follow the same rules, too. Compared with sandpile model, Γ function describing the collapse behavior can effectively scale the quiet time distribution of precipitation events. These results confirm the assumption that for observation station data and low-resolution precipitation data, even in China, affected by complex weather and climate systems, precipitation is still a real world example of self-organized criticality in synoptic. Moreover, exponent β of the probability density function τ, mean quiet time τ¯q and hazard function Hq of quiet times can give sensitive regions of precipitation events in China. Usual intensity precipitation events (UPEs) easily occur and cluster mainly in the middle Yangtze River basin, east of the Sichuan Province and north of the Gansu Province. Extreme intensity precipitation events (EPEs) more easily occur in northern China in the rainy season. UPEs in the Hubei Province and the Hunan Province are more likely to occur in the future. EPEs in the eastern Sichuan Province, the Guizhou Province, the Guangxi Province and Northeast China are more likely to occur.