Early Night Fog Prediction Using Liquid Water Content Measurement in the Monterey Bay Area

Abstract

Fog is challenging to predict, and the accuracy of fog prediction may depend on location and time of day. Furthermore, accurate detection of fog is difficult, since, historically, it is often carried out based on visual observations which can be biased and are often not very frequent. Furthermore, visual observations are more challenging to make during the night. To overcome these limitations, we detected fog using FM-120 instruments, which continuously measured liquid water content in the air in the Monterey, California (USA), area. We used and compared the prediction performance of logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models each evening between 5 pm and 9 pm, which is often the time when advection fog is generated in this coastal region. The relative performances of the models depended on the hours between 5 pm and 9 pm, and the two models often generated different predictions. In such cases, a consensus approach was considered by revisiting the past performance of each model and weighting more heavily the more trustworthy model for a given hour. The LR resulted in a higher sensitivity (hit rate) than the RF model early in the evening, but the overall performance of the RF was usually better than that of the LR. The consensus approach provided more robust prediction performance (closer to a better accuracy level between the two methods). It was difficult to conclude which of the LR and RF models was superior consistently, and the consensus approach provided robustness in 3 and 2 h forecasts.