Attribution Analysis of Annual Precipitation Simulation Differences and Its Correction of CMIP5 Climate Models on the Chinese Mainland

Abstract

Using the self-organizing maps (SOM) method, we ranked and compared the simulation results of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for 32 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over China, and found that the ranking of the GCM’s ability to simulate the frequency of sea level pressure (SLP) weather patterns (WPs) was not correlated with the ranking of its ability to simulate annual precipitation WPs. Then, we attributed the precipitation simulation differences and identified three main components for the differences in the multi-model simulation results: internal variability, frequency differences, and the combined term of the two, with internal variability being the largest of the three components. These three deviations depend ultimately on two factors: the ability to simulate the frequency of WPs and the ability to simulate the corresponding average daily precipitation generated by these WPs, with the second factor playing a decisive role. Then, to address the drawback that the model ensemble results cannot be effectively improved when each single model that makes up the ensemble model is dry or wet, a solution was proposed to correct for the simulation differences: the nodal precipitation differences of each WP were corrected. After the correction of the simulation differences, the simulation capability of all the individual models was greatly improved, which increases our confidence in using the CMIP5 models for future weather patterns and precipitation simulation and forecasting.