Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Super Cyclone Activities over the Bay of Bengal during the Primary Cyclone Season

Abstract

An obvious interdecadal change can be measured in the super cyclones (SCs, categories 4 and 5) that occur from October to November over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This change may be modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). A La Niña-like difference between the 1977–1998 (IP1) and 1999–2014 (IP2) periods forced a local Hadley circulation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean by strengthening the Walker circulation, which caused plummeting upper-level temperatures and ultimately created favorable thermodynamic conditions to enhance the cyclone intensity. Meanwhile, an equatorial downwelling Kelvin wave caused by heating and westerly wind differences entered the BoB rim along the coast and aptly intensified the cyclone, such that the downwelling Kevin wave and Rossby wave generated by its reflection deepened the thermocline in the BoB. The favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in IP2 jointly and preferentially cause far more SC activities from October to November over the BoB compared to IP1.