Model Study of the Effects of Climate Change on the Methane Emissions on the Arctic Shelves

Abstract

Based on a regional ice-ocean model, we simulated the state of the water masses of the Arctic Ocean to analyze the transport of dissolved methane on the Arctic shelves. From 1970 to 2019, we obtained estimates of methane emissions at the Arctic seas due to the degradation of submarine permafrost and gas release at the ocean–bottom interface. The calculated annual methane flux from the Arctic shelf seas into the atmosphere did not exceed 2 Tg CH4 year−1. We have shown that the East Siberian shelf seas make the main contribution to the total methane emissions of the region. The spatial variability of the methane fluxes into the atmosphere is primarily due to the peculiarities of the water circulation and ice conditions. Only 7% of the dissolved methane originating from sediment enters the atmosphere within the study area. Most of it appears to be transported below the surface and oxidized by microbial activity. We found that increasing periods and areas of ice-free water and decreasing ice concentration have contributed to a steady increase in methane emissions since the middle of the first decade of the current century.