A Hybrid Model for Monthly Precipitation Time Series Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition with Extreme Learning Machine

Abstract

The matter of success in forecasting precipitation is of great significance to flood control and drought relief, and water resources planning and management. For the nonlinear problem in forecasting precipitation time series, a hybrid prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) coupled with extreme learning machine (ELM) is proposed to reduce the difficulty in modeling monthly precipitation forecasting and improve the prediction accuracy. The monthly precipitation data in the past 60 years from Yan’an City and Huashan Mountain, Shaanxi Province, are used as cases to test this new hybrid model. First, the nonstationary monthly precipitation time series are decomposed into several relatively stable intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by using VMD. Then, an ELM prediction model is established for each IMF. Next, the predicted values of these components are accumulated to obtain the final prediction results. Finally, three predictive indicators are adopted to measure the prediction accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, back propagation (BP) neural network, Elman neural network (Elman), ELM, and EMD-ELM models: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The experimental simulation results show that the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy and can be used to predict the monthly precipitation time series.