Land Use/Cover Change Prediction Based on a New Hybrid Logistic-Multicriteria Evaluation-Cellular Automata-Markov Model Taking Hefei, China as an Example

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) detection and modeling play an important role in global environmental change research, in particular, policy-making to mitigate climate change, support land spatial planning, and achieve sustainable development. For the time being, a couple of hybrid models, such as cellular automata–Markov (CM), logistic–cellular automata-Markov (LCM), multicriteria evaluation (MCE), and multicriteria evaluation–cellular automata–Markov (MCM), are available. However, their disadvantages lie in either dependence on expert knowledge, ignoring the constraining factors, or without consideration of driving factors. For this purpose, we proposed in this paper a new hybrid model, the logistic–multicriteria evaluation–cellular automata–Markov (LMCM) model, that uses the fully standardized logistic regression coefficients as impact weights of the driving factors to represent their importance on each land use type in order to avoid these defects but is able to better predict the future land use pattern with higher accuracy taking Hefei, China as a study area. Based on field investigation, Landsat images dated 2010, 2015, and 2020, together with digital elevation model (DEM) data, were harnessed for land use/cover (LUC) mapping using a supervised classification approach, which was achieved with high overall accuracy (AC) and reliability (AC > 95%). LUC changes in the periods 2010–2015 and 2015–2020 were hence detected using a post-classification differencing approach. Based on the LUC patterns of the study area in 2010 and 2015, the one of 2020 was simulated by the LMCM, CM, LCM, and MCM models under the same conditions and then compared with the classified LUC map of 2020. The results show that the LMCM model performs better than the other three models with a higher simulation accuracy, i.e., 1.72–5.4%, 2.14–6.63%, and 2.78–9.33% higher than the CM, LCM, and MCM models, respectively. For this reason, we used the LMCM model to simulate and predict the LUC pattern of the study area in 2025. It is expected that the results of the simulation may provide scientific support for spatial planning of territory in Hefei, and the LMCM model can be applied to other areas in China and the world for similar purposes.