Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount

Abstract

Obtaining wind energy for the production of electric energy plays a key role in overcoming the problems associated with climate change and the dwindling reserves of traditional types of energy resources. The purpose of this work is to analyze current methods of energy estimation and forecasting, to consider the main classifications of forecasts and methods used in their construction and to review the main types of mathematical distributions used to calculate the speed and power of wind flow, depending on specific geographical conditions. In recent years, there has been an increase in the capacity of modern wind generators, which has significantly improved the efficiency of wind energy parks. The initial stage in determining the feasibility of involving a particular energy source in the overall energy system of the region is a preliminary assessment of the energy potential, allowing one to determine the possible percentage of substitution of traditional energy. To solve such a problem, it is necessary to use models of energy supply. Evaluation of wind as a resource creates certain difficulties in modeling because this resource is stochastic and variable. In this regard, this paper proposes to consider various models for estimating wind energy potential, which can be classified into empirical models and models based on the application of modern intelligent data analysis technologies. The paper presents an analysis of the existing models for estimating the amount of energy, which can be used in a system designed to determine the most optimal configuration of the energy system based on the use of different conversion technologies most relevant to the case under study, and it also serves as the basis for creating digital twins designed to model and optimize the operation of the projected energy complex.