The Use of the GWPCA-MGWR Model for Studying Spatial Relationships between Environmental Variables and Longline Catches of Yellowfin Tunas

Abstract

The yellowfin tuna represents a significant fishery resource in the Pacific Ocean. Its resource endowment status and spatial variation mechanisms are intricately influenced by marine environments, particularly under varying climate events. Consequently, investigating the spatial variation patterns of dominant environmental factors under diverse climate conditions, and understanding the response of yellowfin tuna catch volume based on the spatial heterogeneity among these environmental factors, presents a formidable challenge. This paper utilizes comprehensive 5°×5° yellowfin tuna longline fishing data and environmental data, including seawater temperature and salinity, published by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) for the period 2000–2021 in the Pacific Ocean. In conjunction with the Niño index, a multiscale geographically weighted regression model based on geographically weighted principal component analysis (GWPCA-MGWR) and spatial association between zones (SABZ) is employed for this study. The results indicate the following: (1) The spatial distribution of dominant environmental factors affecting the catch of Pacific yellowfin tuna is primarily divided into two types: seawater temperature dominates in the western Pacific Ocean, while salinity dominates in the eastern Pacific Ocean. When El Niño occurs, the area with seawater temperature as the dominant environmental factor in the western Pacific Ocean further extends eastward, and the water layers where the dominant environmental factors are located develop to deeper depths; when La Niña occurs, there is a clear westward expansion in the area with seawater salinity as the dominant factor in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This change in the spatial distribution pattern of dominant factors is closely related to the movement of the position of the warm pool and cold tongue under ENSO events. (2) The areas with a higher catch of Pacific yellowfin tuna are spatially associated with the dominant environmental factor of mid-deep seawater temperature (105–155 m temperature) to a greater extent than other factors, the highest correlation exceeds 70%, and remain relatively stable under different ENSO events. The formation of this spatial association pattern is related to the vertical movement of yellowfin tuna as affected by subsurface seawater temperature. (3) The GWPCA-MGWR model can fully capture the differences in environmental variability among subregions in the Pacific Ocean under different climatic backgrounds, intuitively reflect the changing areas and influencing boundaries from a macro perspective, and has a relatively accurate prediction on the trend of yellowfin tuna catch in the Pacific Ocean.