Time Series Analysis of Landsat Data for Investigating the Relationship between Land Surface Temperature and Forest Changes in Paphos Forest, Cyprus

Abstract

This study aims to investigate how alternations of the land surface temperature (LST) affects the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in Paphos forest, Cyprus, using Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 imagery for the time periods 1993–2000 and 2013–2018, respectively. A total of 262 Landsat images were processed to compute the mean monthly NDVI and LST values and create a time series. Using the Cook’s distance, the effect of missing values in the analysis of the time series were examined. Results from the cross-correlation and cross-variograms, decomposition model, and the BFAST algorithm were compared to produce reliable conclusions on forest changes and satellite, meteorological, and environmental data were combined to interpret the changes that occurred inside the forest. The decomposition analysis showed a decrease of 2.7% in the LST for the period 1993–2000 and an increase of 4.6% in the LST during the period 2013–2018. The NDVI trend is negatively correlated to the LST trend for both time periods. An increase in the LST trend was identified in November 1998 as well as in the NDVI trend in October 1994 and May 2014 that was caused by favorable climatic conditions. An increase in the NDVI trend from May 2014 to December 2015 may be related to reduced pityocampa attacks. An abrupt decrease was detected in December 2015 that was probably caused by the locust invasion that occurred in the island earlier that year. A positive correlation appears for LST and NDVI variables for time lags 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 months. Overall, it was shown that LST and NDVI analysis is very promising for identifying potential forest decline.