An Assessment of the Impact of Temperature Rise Due to Climate Change on Asphalt Pavement in China

Abstract

In the global warming context, understanding the impact of temperature rise on asphalt pavement is the basis for making adaptation strategies. An approach based on historical climate data and pavement performance models was employed to assess the potential impact of temperature rise on asphalt pavement in China. It is shown that permanent deformation is one sensitive aspect of asphalt pavement performance, which increased on average by 20.70% from 1992 to 2019. Another one is low-temperature cracking, which decreased by 20.99% from 1970 to 1997, but has remained almost unchanged since 1997. Global mean surface temperature anomalies of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C will increase the permanent deformation of asphalt pavement by 18.63% and 36.71%, respectively, compared to 2019. Global warming is bringing serious challenges to the structure and material design of asphalt pavement due to the increasing service temperature range.