Does Air Pollution Influence the Settlement Intention of the Floating Population in China? Individual Heterogeneity and City Characteristics

Abstract

Serious air pollution has caused widespread concern in Chinese society in recent years. China’s floating population plays an important role in China’s economic development, and the determinants of the floating population’s settlement intentions have attracted increasing attention. Using the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data (CMDS) and the satellite grid data of global PM2.5 concentration as well as city-level data, this study investigated the influences of air quality on migrants’ settlement intention, in particular, individual heterogeneity and city characteristics. Using an instrumental variable to correct for endogeneity, we found that air pollution has a significant negative effect on the settlement intentions of China’s floating population. Migrants who were older, better educated and with poorer health are more sensitive to air pollution with regard to settlement intention. Meanwhile, settlement intentions are also influenced by individual adaptability: Respondents with better air quality in their hometown are more sensitive to air pollution. Poor air pollution has not weakened the attractiveness of Tier-1 cities to the floating population, nor has the administrative level of a city.