Land Use Changes for Investments in Silvoarable Agriculture Projected by the CLUE-S Spatio-Temporal Model

Abstract

Investment in biology-based technological innovations is a key requirement for the development of modern agriculture/forestry. The expansion of innovative biological technologies includes changes in crops/cultivations, such as the transition from intensive monocultures to multiple crops of lower agrochemical inputs with the integration of woody trees/shrubs or animals, represented by Agroforestry. This innovative biological technology is further promoted at the European Union (EU) level by powerful institutions such as the Green Deal and the new CAP, mainly by tools such as ecoschemes and agri-environmental and climate measures (AECMs). The use of integrated regional spatiotemporal models, such as CLUE-S, to predict land use changes in the framework of Agroforestry is rather restricted. This paper examines Agroforestry as a vehicle that can contribute to achieving the rural development of the region of Thessaly, Greece. It sets a time horizon for reviewing the changes that are expected in the most important units of land uses of the rural landscape of the municipality of Mouzaki, western Thessaly plain, in the year 2040, which serves as model land for the region of Thessaly. It examines these changes with the effect of three (3) socio-economic scenarios: (a) a linear operating scenario (business as usual, BAU), (b) an ecological land protection (ELP) scenario, and (c) a rapid economic development (RED) scenario. These scenarios were introduced in the non-spatial module of the CLUE-S spatiotemporal model, while in the spatial module sixteen (16) characteristic landscape parameters were introduced as independent variables. The most important land use units, including traditional silvoarable and silvopastoral woodland systems, were the dependent variables. The simulations of the changes of the land use units showed that under the RED scenario, in the year 2040 the extent of the silvoarable systems is expected to increase significantly (57%) compared to the reference year of 2020, while the rest of the land use units under the other scenarios are mainly regulated by depopulation/abandonment of the rural areas and the processes of natural succession. The fact that the extent of silvoarable systems is increasing, in combination with the favorable institutional environment created by European rural policies, gives impetus to regional rural development through investments in the agricultural sector and mainly in Agroforestry systems.