Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Global Climate Models (CMIP6) to Predict Potential Soil Erosion Associated with Climate Change in the Talas District, Kazakhstan

Abstract

Changes in precipitation patterns, a fundamental aspect of climate change, can significantly impact soil erosion processes. This article aims to evaluate the current state of soil erosion in the Talas area utilizing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Climate projections for the study were obtained through the CMIP6 Global Climate Model (GCM) and the climatic data were integrated into the RUSLE to simulate potential changes in soil erosion patterns. The mean annual soil erosion rate, observed over the research duration, ranges from 0 to 127 (t y−1). Results indicate that 56.29% of the study area is characterized by a low susceptibility to soil erosion, with an additional 33.56% classified as at moderate risk and 7.36% deemed at high risk of erosion. Furthermore, the evaluation reveals an average increase in precipitation levels compared to the baseline. Models project a rise of 21.4%, 24.2%, and 26.4% by the years 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. Concurrently, the study observes a parallel increase in soil loss with precipitation, demonstrating a rise of 34%, 35.5%, and 38.9% for the corresponding time periods. Also, the spatially distributed results show that the southern part of the territory of the Talas region has been impacted by erosion over the past and will also be in the future period. These findings underscore the intricate interplay between climate-induced changes in precipitation and their significant impact on soil erosion. The results provide essential insights for developing targeted soil conservation strategies in the Talas area under evolving climatic conditions.