How Pollution and Climate Change Affect the Future of Mangrove Forest—A Simulation Study on the Mangrove Area in the Thi Vai Catchment, Vietnam

Abstract

Environmental pollution and climate change have been reported to severely affect the growth and productivity of mangroves. However, it is still unclear how the mangroves will fare if stressed by these adverse conditions, and how the mangroves might fare if these conditions improve. In this study, the trends of mangrove forests in the Thi Vai catchment (Vietnam) were assessed using mathematical models, addressing the polluted environment under climate change conditions. This simulated study was conducted based on the analysis of different types of data. Data on 18 elements’ concentrations accumulated in mangrove tissues in this catchment were analyzed in relation to the states of tree growth rates. Data on the economic productivity and water quality of the Thi Vai River in the five years from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed to detect the main sources of pollution that induced damage to mangrove forests. The results achieved from data analysis are the linear and nonlinear interactions between the concentrations of tissue-accumulated substances and the growth rates of trees. Concentrations of P, Mg, and Sr in mangrove leaves have a linear relationship with plant growth while Cr, Cu, and Ni accumulated in roots have a nonlinear relationship. The mining industry and accommodation and food services are the main contributing sources of Cr and Cu, which affect mangrove health. Information supplied from the data analysis helped in designing the scenarios of different combined environmental conditions for model simulations. Our previously developed mangrove dynamics model was applied to predict the trajectory of the mangrove forest in this area under a total of 16 combined environmental condition scenarios.