Industrial Structure, Employment Structure and Economic Growth—Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper takes China’s economic data from 1978 to 2020 as a sample, combined with indicators such as a correlation coefficient, degree of deviation, and employment elasticity, to carry out a correlation analysis on employment structure, industrial structure, and economic growth. On this basis, a regression model is established to characterize the impact of economic structure deviation on economic growth, and the linkage relationship between employment structure, industrial structure, and economic growth is further explored through a vector self-regression model. The research results show that: the degree of deviation of China’s economic structure is weakening, and the economic structure is continuously optimized; the improvement of the degree of deviation of the economic structure has a significant contribution to China’s economic growth; the impact of the industrial structure on the employment structure is first strong and then slow; the impact of economic growth on the industrial structure is lagging and long-term; the impact of the optimization of the employment structure on economic growth is most obvious in the early stage; the impact of economic growth on the employment structure is more direct; the adjustment of the industrial structure shows a certain stickiness; and that economic transformation and high-quality development require continuous advancement. This paper describes the impact of structural deviation on economic growth and reveals the interactive impact of industrial structure, employment structure, and economic growth, which can provide decision-making reference for policy makers. Specifically, it includes formulating policies to realize skills spillover to improve the employment structure; formulating policies to promote industrial integration to optimize industrial structure; formulating policies to encourage innovation so as to promote the improvement of total factor productivity and then drive the adjustment and optimization of industrial structures and employment structures; and finally, encouraging policy makers to ensure the persistence and consistency of relevant policies so that the effects of relevant policies can be truly realized.