The Impact of RES Development in Poland on the Change of the Energy Generation Profile and Reduction of CO2 Emissions

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic with subsequent economic fluctuations during consecutive epidemics waves and preventive measures in the form of lockdowns, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a meaningful impact on the European economy, including the energy market. These events have caused an increase in the prices of many products, including fossil fuels, and also a lack of their availability. The changes inspired the authors to conduct research on the current situation in Poland in the field of renewable energy and coal. The paper describes the research on the impact of the development of RES (mainly photovoltaic sources) on the change in the energy generation profile in the case of Poland. The article analyzes the impact of RES (renewable energy sources) on the reduction of CO2 emissions. The conducted analysis was based on the historical similarity of the replacement of conventional (carbon) sources by PV (photovoltaics) by determining in how many cases (%), a specific carbon source will be displaced. Based on the prepared forecast, it was determined that by the end of the year, the installed capacity in PV will reach the level of 11,213 MWp (in wind energy, it will be 7875 MWp). Replacement (reduction of consumption) of approximately 1.5 million Mg of hard coal and 2.87 million Mg of lignite was concluded to be possible (~4.4% and 6.3% of the hard-coal and lignite volume used for energy production). Limiting this volume of hard coal and lignite will also reduce CO2 emissions in the entire NPS by 5.24 million Mg (−5%) in 2022.