Sudden Event Prediction Based on Event Knowledge Graph

Abstract

Event prediction is a knowledge inference problem that predicts the consequences or effects of an event based on existing information. Early work on event prediction typically modeled the event context to predict what would happen next. Moreover, the predicted outcome was often singular. These studies had difficulty coping with both the problems of predicting sudden events in unknown contexts and predicting outcomes consisting of multiple events. To address these two problems better, we present the heterogeneous graph event prediction model (HGEP), which is based on an event knowledge graph. To cope with the situation of missing contexts, we propose a representation learning method based on the heterogeneous graph transformer. We generate event scenario representations from arguments of the initial event and other related concurrent events for the event prediction. We improve the prediction ability of the HGEP model through prior knowledge provided by scenario models in the event knowledge graph. To obtain multiple prediction outcomes, we design a scoring function to calculate the score of the occurrence probability of each event class. The event classes with scores higher than a priori values are adopted as prediction outcomes. In this paper, we create an event knowledge graph in the domain of transportation for an event prediction experiment. The experimental results show that the HGEP model can effectively make predictions with event scenario representations and has a more accurate matching rate and higher precision than the baseline model.