Time-Varying Risk Factors for Incident Fractures in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Nationwide Cohort Study in South Korea

Abstract

Little is known about the time-varying risk factors for fractures in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Using the Korea Organ Transplantation Registry, a nationwide cohort study of KTRs, the incidence, locations, and time-varying predictors of fractures were analyzed, including at baseline and post-transplant 6-month variables in KTRs who underwent KT between January 2014 and June 2019. Among 4134 KTRs, with a median follow-up of 2.94 years (12,441.04 person-years), 63 patients developed fractures. The cumulative 5-year incidence was 2.10%. The most frequent locations were leg (25.40%) and foot/ankle (22.22%). In multivariable analysis, older recipient age at baseline (hazard ratio [HR], 1.035; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.007–1.064; p = 0.013) and higher tacrolimus trough level (HR, 1.112; 95% CI, 1.029–1.202; p = 0.029) were associated with higher risks for fractures. Pretransplant diabetes mellitus had a time-dependent impact on fractures, with increasing risk as time elapses (HR for diabetes mellitus 1.115; 95% CI, 0.439–2.832; HR for diabetes mellitus × time, 1.049; 95% CI, 1.007–1.094; p = 0.022). In conclusion, KTRs had a high risk of peripheral skeletal fractures in the first 5 years. At baseline recipient age, pretransplant diabetes mellitus and tacrolimus trough level after KT were responsible for the fractures in KTRs.