System Dynamics Approach for Water Resources Management: A Case Study from the Souss-Massa Basin

Abstract

In several areas, many social, economic, and physical subsystems interact around water resources. Integrated water management is applied to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems, mainly in hydrologic-stressed areas. The Souss-Massa basin, with its semi-arid climate, has a significant demand for agricultural, industrial, tourism, and domestic water. It constitutes a complex system where the lack of knowledge of all the interacting subsystems has led to a shortage of water in quantity and quality. The objective of this study is to investigate the interactions between supply and demand at different stages using a System Dynamics (SD) approach. The model developed promotes a holistic understanding of the interactions between the different problem indicators that operate in water resources management in order to support decision-making action and successfully manage water resources at the Souss-Massa basin scale. The chosen performance indicator is based on the achievement of a baseline sustainability index (SI) defined as the ratio of available water to supply water that should be higher than 20% to avoid a water stress situation. The multisource data were gathered from different government agencies for the period spanning between 2007 and 2020. The results showed that the current policies do not lead to sustainable water management. Groundwater withdrawals have increased considerably, from 747 Mm3 in 2007 to 4884 Mm3 in 2020. The balance between water supply and demand is only reached for three years, 2010, 2015, and 2018, without ever reaching an SI of 20%. The sensitivity analysis showed that the sustainability of water resources in the Souss-Massa basin is mainly impacted by the availability of surface water, irrigated areas, and irrigation efficiency. This study will be of great interest to policymakers to provide optimal and sustainable water management strategies based on improved water use efficiency, and to contribute to the sustainable development agenda in arid and semi-arid regions.