Potential Threat of an Invasive Fish Species for Two Native Newts Inhabiting Wetlands of Europe Vulnerable to Climate Change

Abstract

In the modern world, when the problems of the environment are most acutely associated with climate change, amphibians are considered to be the most vulnerable group of anamniotes as an indicator of the state of wetlands. Along with a decrease of numbers among amphibians in Europe, nowadays newts especially suffer from the impact of invasive species, in particular predators such as the Chinese sleeper, Perccottus glenii. This predatory fish species has recently spread to areas of primary relevance for newt reproduction. This fish consumes eggs, larvae, and even adult newt individuals. Using an ecological niche approach and climate based species distribution models (SDM), we applied the coefficient of determination (R2) for comparing the level of similarity of the built SDM for the newts Triturus cristatus and Lissotriton vulgaris, and the Chinese sleeper. We show that by 2050, the level of climatic niche similarity for these native and invasive species will increase from 12% to 22% throughout Europe, and from 44% to 66% in Eastern Europe. This study highlights the expansion of the Chinese sleeper as a real threat to European biodiversity of wetlands in the near future, especially in their most northeastern distribution range.