Climate-Driven Changes in Annual Flow Patterns: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Buktyrma River (Kazakhstan)

Abstract

This article examines and calculates the annual flows of rivers in the Buktyrma River basin in connection with changing climatic conditions affecting runoff formation. An analysis of climatic characteristics, based on data from meteorological stations of the hydrometeorological service of Kazakhstan, indicates intense warming and a moderate increase in annual precipitation since the early 1980s. The more intense melting of high-mountain snow and glaciers has led to a reduction in glaciated areas. Alongside the noted trend of increasing precipitation, this melting contributes to an increase in surface runoff. According to Global Land Ice Measurements from Space data, there has been a reduction in the area of glaciers in the river basin and a complete disappearance of glaciers in the Sarymsakty River basin. Studying long-term water-flow data in the basin has helped identify periods with consistent patterns. These periods are characterized by different values of probability-distribution-curve parameters. An assessment of the homogeneity of the identified periods of runoff series over the past decades, using known parametric criteria, confirmed the reliability of the calculated values of annual runoff. The observed increase in the norm, depending on elevation, glacier presence, and the spatial orientation of watershed ridges, ranges from 5% to 52%. The observed trends in changes in climatic characteristics and runoff indicators of the rivers in the basin support water-management planning in this region. This includes using the approximation of empirical river-supply curves, which can aid in assessing the calculated hydrological characteristics.