Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping in Baikal Natural Territory Using Random Forest

Abstract

Wildfires are a significant problem in Irkutsk Oblast. They are caused by climate change, thunderstorms, and human factors. In this study, we use the Random Forest machine learning method to map the wildfire susceptibility of Irkutsk Oblast based on data from remote sensing, meteorology, government forestry authorities, and emergency situations. The main contributions of the paper are the following: an improved domain model that describes information about weather conditions, vegetation type, and infrastructure of the region in the context of the possible risk of wildfires; a database of wildfires in Irkutsk Oblast from 2017 to 2020; the results of an analysis of factors that cause wildfires and risk assessment based on Random Forest in the form of fire hazard mapping. In this paper, we collected and visualized data on wildfires and factors influencing their occurrence: meteorological, topographic, characteristics of vegetation, and human activity (social factors). Data sets describing two classes, “fire” and “no fire”, were generated. We introduced a classification according to which the probability of a wildfire in each specific cell of the territory can be determined and a wildfire risk map built. The use of the Random Forest method allowed us to achieve the following risk assessment accuracy indicators: accuracy—0.89, F1-score—0.88, and AUC—0.96. The comparison of the results with earlier ones obtained using case-based reasoning revealed that the application of the case-based approach can be considered the initial stage for deeper investigations with the use of Random Forest for more accurate forecasting.