Potential Sea Level Rise Inundation in the Mediterranean: From Susceptibility Assessment to Risk Scenarios for Policy Action

Abstract

Coastal ecosystems and anthropic activities are prone to be affected by the negative impact of marine-related processes induced by climate change, such as erosion, flooding and permanent inundation. Studies aiming at defining potential risk scenarios represent a valuable tool for the identification of the most suitable coastal adaptation measures. After outlining sea level rise implications at the Mediterranean scale, this paper deals with inundation risk scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 for the north-eastern sector of the Island of Gozo (Malta), central Mediterranean Sea. The analysis, carried out by applying an index-based procedure, firstly required the evaluation of the susceptibility to inundation of the investigated coastal stretch under different sea level projections. Then, the spatial combination of inundation susceptibility with the exposure and vulnerability of the area allowed identification of the most critical sectors in terms of coastal risk. The results of the analysis showed that, under the worst-case climate scenarios, 5.5% and 8.1% of the investigated coastal sector are prone to very high inundation risk (Class R4) in 2050 and 2100, respectively. In particular, the bays of Ramla and Marsalforn, which are characterized by significant economic and touristic activities, were found to be the sites where the expected impacts of future sea level rise will be higher if no management strategy and adaptation action are taken in the near future.