Sea Level Rise Impact on Compound Coastal River Flood Risk in Klaipėda City (Baltic Coast, Lithuania)

Abstract

Due to climate change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the 21st century in Europe. As a result, flood risk and flood-related losses might increase. It is therefore essential to simulate potential floods not only relying on historical but also future projecting data. Such simulations can provide necessary information for the development of flood protection measures and spatial planning. This paper analyzes the risk of compound flooding in the Danė River under different river discharge and Klaipėda Strait water level probabilities. Additionally, we examine how a water level rise of 1 m in the Klaipėda Strait could impact Danė River floods in Klaipėda city. Flood extent was estimated with the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and visualized with ArcGIS Pro. Research results show that a rise in the water level in the Klaipėda Strait has a greater impact on the central part of Klaipėda city, while that of the maximum discharge rates of the river affected the northern upstream part of the analyzed river section. A sea level rise of 1 m could lead to an increase in areas affected by Danė floods by up to three times. Floods can cause significant damage to the infrastructure of Klaipėda port city, urbanized territories in the city center, and residential areas in the northern part of the city. Our results confirm that, in the long run, sea level rise will significantly impact the urban areas of the Klaipėda city situated near the Baltic Sea coast.