Risk Perception Thresholds and Their Impact on the Behavior of Nearby Residents in Waste to Energy Project Conflict: An Evolutionary Game Analysis

Abstract

In China, waste to energy (WTE) projects are currently considered the best choice for dealing with municipal solid waste (MSW), but their siting often leads to conflicts. The perceptions of proximate residents to the changes and uncertainty induced by WTE projects are the main reasons for such conflicts. Determining the indicators used to measure these changes is crucial for an evaluation of surrounding residents’ risk perception. One indicator is residents’ risk perception thresholds. Our paper employs evolutionary game theory to deduce the risk perception threshold of surrounding residents related to a WTE project, which provides a novel contribution to the literature. The results of a case study and simulations show that the level of the risk perception threshold has a crucial effect on the behavior choices of surrounding residents. Two important parameters that affect the value of this risk perception threshold are possible economic compensation and possible resistance costs. A change to the values of these two parameters can change the value of the risk perception threshold of nearby residents. If the change in the risk perceived by surrounding residents is lower than the threshold they can tolerate, they will accept construction of the project. However, if surrounding residents are worried about this risk fluctuating as a result of construction of the plant, they will behave more cautiously and conservatively, and if the possible risk exceeds the threshold that they are willing to tolerate, then they will boycott the plan and protest against the construction of the project. In this case, the surrounding residents will still show restraint. This study tries to provide a theoretical and practical basis for effective resolution by government of the public’s risk concerns and existing or imminent conflicts.