Utilizing Machine Learning and Multi-Station Observations to Investigate the Visibility of Sea Fog in the Beibu Gulf

Abstract

This study utilizes six years of hourly meteorological data from seven observation stations in the Beibu Gulf—Qinzhou (QZ), Fangcheng (FC), Beihai (BH), Fangchenggang (FCG), Dongxing (DX), Weizhou Island (WZ), and Hepu (HP)—over the period from 2016 to 2021. It examines the diurnal variations of sea fog occurrence and compares the performance of three machine learning (ML) models—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost)—in predicting visibility associated with sea fog in the Beibu Gulf. The results show that sea fog occurs more frequently during the nighttime than during the daytime, primarily due to day-night differences in air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. To predict visibility associated with sea fog, these variables, along with temperature-dew point differences (Ta−Td), pressure (p), month, day, hour, and wind components, were used as feature variables in the three ML models. Although all the models performed satisfactorily in predicting visibility, XGBoost demonstrated the best performance among them, with its predicted visibility values closely matching the observed low visibility in the Beibu Gulf. However, the performance of these models varies by station, suggesting that additional feature variables, such as geographical or topographical variables, may be needed for training the models and improving their accuracy.