Contribution of Climatic Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Dynamics over Southwest China during 2000–2020

Abstract

Southwest China is an important carbon sink area in China. It is critical to track and assess how human activity (HA) and climate change (CC) affect plant alterations in order to create effective and sustainable vegetation restoration techniques. This study used MODIS NDVI data, vegetation type data, and meteorological data to examine the regional and temporal variations in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020. Using trend analysis, the study looks at the temporal and geographical variability in the NDVI. Partial correlation analysis was also used to assess the effects of precipitation, extreme climate indicators, and mean temperature on the dynamics of the vegetation. A new residual analysis technique was created to categorize the effects of CC and HA on NDVI changes while taking extreme climate into consideration. The findings showed that the NDVI in Southwest China grew at a rate of 0.02 per decade between 2000 and 2020. According to the annual NDVI, there was a regional rise in around 85.59% of the vegetative areas, with notable increases in 36.34% of these regions. Temperature had a major influence on the northern half of the research region, but precipitation and extreme climate had a notable effect on the southern half. The rates at which climatic variables and human activity contributed to changes in the NDVI were 0.0008/10a and 0.0034/10a, respectively. These rates accounted for 19.1% and 80.9% of the variances, respectively. The findings demonstrate that most areas displayed greater HA-induced NDVI increases, with the exception of the western Sichuan Plateau. This result suggests that when formulating vegetation restoration and conservation strategies, special attention should be paid to the impact of human activities on vegetation to ensure the sustainable development of ecosystems.