Comparative Study of Coupling Models of Feature Selection Methods and Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Monthly Reservoir Inflow

Abstract

Effective reservoir operation under the effects of climate change is immensely challenging. The accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting is one of the essential factors supporting reservoir operations. This study aimed to investigate coupling models of feature selection (FS) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the monthly reservoir inflow. The study was carried out using data from the Huai Nam Sai reservoir in southern Thailand. Eighteen years of monthly recorded data (i.e., reservoir inflow, reservoir storage, rainfall, and regional climate indices) with up to a 12-month time lag were utilized. Three ML techniques, i.e., multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN)were compared in their capabilities. In addition, two FS techniques, i.e., genetic algorithm (GA) and backward elimination (BE) methods, were studied with four predictable time intervals, consisting of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months in advance. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for model evaluation. Study results revealed that FS methods (i.e., GA and BE) Could improve the performance of SVR and ANN for predicting monthly reservoir inflow forecasting, but they have no effects on MLR. Different developed forecasting models were suitable for different reservoir inflow forecasting time-step-ahead. BE-ANN provided the best performance for three-time-ahead (T + 3) and nine-time-ahead (T + 9) by giving an OI of 0.9885 and 0.8818, NSE of 0.9546 and 0.9815, RMSE of 1.3155 and 1.2172 MCM/month, MAE of 0.9568 and 0.9644 MCM/month, and r of 0.9796 and 0.9804, respectively. The GA-ANN model showed the highest prediction accuracy for six-time-ahead (T + 6), with an OI of 0.8997, NSE of 0.9407, RMSE of 2.1699 MCM/month, MAE of 1.7549 MCM/month, and r of 0.9759. The ANN model showed the best prediction accuracy for twelve-time-ahead (T + 12), with an OI of 0.9515, NSE of 0.9835, RMSE of 1.1613 MCM/month, MAE of 0.9273 MCM/month, and r of 0.9835.