Ionospheric Scintillation Prediction on S4 and ROTI Parameters Using Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm

Abstract

Irregularities in electron density usually correlate with ionospheric plasma perturbations. These variations causing radio signal fluctuations, in response, generate ionospheric scintillations that frequently occur in low-latitude regions. In this research, the combination of an artificial neural network (ANN) with the genetic algorithm (GA) was implemented to predict ionospheric scintillations. The GA method was considered for obtaining the ANN model’s initial weights. This procedure was applied to GNSS observations at GUAM (13.58°E, 144.86°N, 201.922H) station for the daily prediction of ionospheric amplitude scintillations via predicting the signal-to-noise ratio (S4) or via prediction of the rate of TEC index (ROTI). Thirty-day modeling was carried out for three months in January, March, and July, representing different seasons of the winter solstice, equinox, and summer solstice during three different years, 2015, 2017, and 2020, with different solar activities. The models, along with ionospheric physical data, were used for the daily prediction of ionospheric scintillations for the consequent day after the modeling. The prediction results were evaluated using S4 derived from GNSS observations at GUAM station. The designed model has the ability to predict daily ionospheric scintillations with an accuracy of about 81% for the S4 and about 80% for the ROTI.