Forecasting the Hydrogen Demand in China: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Many countries, including China, have implemented supporting policies to promote the commercialized application of green hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) model is proposed to study the evolution of hydrogen demand in China from the petroleum refining industry, the synthetic ammonia industry, and the vehicle market. In the model, the impact from the macro-environment, hydrogen fuel supply, and construction of hydrogen facilities is considered to combine in incentives for supporting policies. To further formulate the competitive relationship in the vehicle market, the Lotka–Volterra (LV) approach is adopted. The model is verified using published data from 2003 to 2017. The model is also used to forecast China’s hydrogen demand up to the year of 2030 under three different scenarios. Finally, some forward-looking guidance is provided to policy makers according to the forecasting results.