Measuring COVID-19 Vulnerability for Northeast Brazilian Municipalities: Social, Economic, and Demographic Factors Based on Multiple Criteria and Spatial Analysis

Abstract

COVID-19 has brought several harmful consequences to the world from many perspectives, including social, economic, and well-being in addition to health issues. However, these harmful consequences vary in intensity in different regions. Identifying which cities are most vulnerable to COVID-19 and understanding which variables could be associated with the advance of registered cases is a challenge. Therefore, this study explores and builds a spatial decision model to identify the characteristics of the cities that are most vulnerable to COVID-19, taking into account social, economic, demographic, and territorial aspects. Hence, 18 features were separated into the four groups mentioned. We employed a model joining the dominance-based rough set approach to aggregate the features (multiple criteria) and spatial analysis (Moran index, and Getis and Ord) to obtain final results. The results show that the most vulnerable places have characteristics with high population density and poor economic conditions. In addition, we conducted subsequent analysis to validate the results. The case was developed in the northeast region of Brazil.