A Modeling Approach to Diagnose the Impacts of Global Changes on Discharge and Suspended Sediment Concentration within the Red River Basin

Abstract

The Red River basin is a typical Asian river system affected by climate and anthropogenic changes. The purpose of this study is to build a tool to separate the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic influences on hydrology and suspended sediments. A modeling method combining in situ and climatic satellite data was used to analyze the discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) at a daily time scale from 2000 to 2014. Scenarios of natural and actual conditions were implemented to quantify the impacts of climate variability and dams. The modeling gained satisfactory simulation results of water regime and SSC compared to the observations. Under natural conditions, the Q and SSC show decreasing tendencies, and climate variability is the main influence factor reducing the Q. Under actual conditions, SSC is mainly reduced by dams. At the outlet, annual mean Q got reduced by 13% (9% by climate and 4% by dams), and annual mean SSC got reduced to 89% (13% due to climate and 76% due to dams) of that under natural conditions. The climate tendencies are mainly explained by a decrease of 9% on precipitation and 5% on evapotranspiration, which results in a 13% decrease of available water for the whole basin.