Projected Changes in Spawning Ground Distribution of Mature Albacore Tuna in the Indian Ocean under Various Global Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The present study utilised a geometric mean model in which sea surface temperature, oxygen, and sea surface salinity were used to predict the effects of climate change on the habitats of mature albacore tuna in the Indian Ocean under multiple representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Data pertaining to the albacore tuna fishing conducted by Taiwanese longline fisheries during the October–March period in 1998–2016 were analysed. The fishery data comprised fishing location (latitude and longitude), fishing effort (number of hooks used), number of catches, fishing time (month and year), and fish weight. Nominal catch per unit effort data were standardised to mitigate the potential effects of temporal and spatial factors in causing bias and overestimation. The Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) scores of potential habitats for mature albacore in the Indian Ocean are predicted to change considerably in response to varying levels of predicted climate change. Under projected warm climate conditions (RCP 8.5), the stratification of water is predicted to cause low HSI areas to expand and potential habitats for mature albacore to shift southward by 2100. The findings derived from these mature albacore habitat forecasts can contribute to the evaluation of potential hazards and feasible adaptation measures for albacore fishery resources in the context of climate change. The distribution trends pertaining to potential habitats for mature albacore should be used with caution and can provide resource stakeholders with guidance for decision-making.