An Analytic Model for Identifying Real-Time Anchorage Collision Risk Based on AIS Data

Abstract

With the increasing volume of ship traffic, maritime traffic safety is facing a great challenge because the traffic in port becomes more and more crowded and complicated, which will make ship collisions more likely to happen. As a special water area of the port, the anchorage is also threatened by collision risk all the time. For accurately assessing the collision risk in anchorage and its adjacent waters in real time, this paper proposed an analytic model based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The proposed anchorage collision risk model was established in microscopic, macroscopic, and complexity aspects, which considered ship relative motion, anchorage characteristics, and ship traffic complexity, respectively. For validation, the AIS data of the anchorages near the Shandong Peninsular were used to carry out a series of experiments. The results show that the proposed model can identify the anchorage collision risk effectively and has an advantage in dealing with complicated scenarios. The proposed anchorage collision risk model can help maritime surveillance better monitor and organize the ship traffic near the port and provide mariners with a reference about the collision risk situation of the anchorage on their route, which are important to improving maritime traffic safety.