Establishing an Early Warning System for Dust Storms in Peri-Desert Regions

Abstract

The Taklimakan Desert in northwest China stands as a significant contributor to dust storms, with its fringe oases already designated as ecologically fragile due to the severe impacts of these storms. This study focuses on Moyu County, situated on the southwest edge of the Taklimakan Desert, examining the origin and transport pathways of dust storms from 2004 to 2021. The classification involves utilizing a 36 h backward trajectory model and the k-means clustering technique, resulting in three clusters displaying distinct transport pathways and entry directions. Air pollutant concentrations at the study site corresponding to each cluster are analyzed to elucidate the contribution of dust storms from different directions. The results categorize 1952 dusty days into three categories: NE-SE (cluster 1), N-N (cluster 2), and NW-W (cluster 3). The highest frequency of dust storms, accounting for 64% of the total suspended dust weather, originates from the northeast and southeast direction (NE-SE category), with relatively weak intensity, mainly as suspended dust (71.5%). Strong sand storms predominantly occur from the northwest direction (57.8%). Cluster 1 (the southeast direction) exhibits a higher concentration of SO2, NO2, and CO, mainly associated with its pathway over anthropogenically polluted areas. Conversely, Cluster 3 (northwest direction) shows higher PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations due to increased wind speed and stronger dust storm intensity. The study develops dust storm early warning schemes based on 15-day advance predictions, utilizing an 18-year trajectory model and local monitoring data. This proposed warning scheme serves as a predictive tool for potential dust storm events and air pollution levels, aiding in both scientific research and policy formulation for dust storm mitigation and adaptation. The data obtained also hols relevance for conducting further scientific research in this field.