Analyzing Important Disaster Risk Factors for Enhanced Policy Responses in Perceived at-Most-Risk African Countries

Abstract

The foremost priority of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) is the increased understanding of disaster risk and strengthening its management. Detailed insights into African disaster risk drivers and assessment of policies for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) are sparse, hence this study. Using the Index for Risk Management (INFORM) data for 2022, this study determines important disaster risk drivers in Africa using a random forest machine learning model. Violent conflicts, current and projected, emerge as the only hazard factor significantly predictive of disaster risk in Africa, from the analyzed data. Other factors are mostly the sub-components of lack of coping capacity. Furthermore, 25 policies of the 10 countries of very high disaster risk were analyzed to evaluate their inclusion of pre-identified disaster risk factors. The findings of this study depart from the viewpoint of giving natural hazards greater attention in African disaster risk literature. Moreover, identified disaster risk drivers in Africa coincide with the social dimension of disasters, and broader continental developmental and policy issues. As Africa grapples with the complex interplay of environmental, socioeconomic, and conflict-related factors shaping disaster risk, the imperative arises for the development and implementation of comprehensive policies aimed at poverty and vulnerability-reduction to foster resilience across the region.