Population Structure and Local Carbon Emission Reduction: Evidence from Guangdong, China

Abstract

Based on the data obtained on carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, China, from 1997 to 2019, this study focused on the relationship between energy consumption and population development in Guangdong Province. This study quantitatively analyzed the impact of different population structures and technological progress on carbon emissions in Guangdong Province by establishing an extended model of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT). The results showed that the population size factor was not as good as the population structure factor for carbon emissions. In addition, different demographic factors affected carbon emissions differently with both positive and negative effects. Finally, relevant policy suggestions were proposed from the perspectives of encouraging the childbearing of appropriate-age residents, optimizing the population structure, reducing the separation of people and households, guiding residents to return to the traditional family model, guiding residents to live a low-carbon life, optimizing industrial institutions, and adjusting the energy consumption structure.