Analysis of CO2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China

Abstract

Decomposing main drivers of CO2 emissions and predicting the trend of it are the key to promoting low-carbon development for coping with climate change based on controlling GHG emissions. Here, we decomposed six drivers of CO2 emissions in Changxing County using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. We then constructed a model for CO2 emissions prediction based on a revised version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and used it to simulate energy-related CO2 emissions in five scenarios. Results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2017, the economic output effect was a significant, direct, dominant, and long-term driver of increasing CO2 emissions; (2) The STIRPAT model predicted that energy structure will be the decisive factor restricting total CO2 emissions from 2018 to 2035; (3) Low-carbon development in the electric power sector is the best strategy for Changxing to achieve low-carbon development. Under the tested scenarios, Changxing will likely reach peak total CO2 emissions (17.95 million tons) by 2030. Measures focused on optimizing the overall industrial structure, adjusting the internal industry sector, and optimizing the energy structure can help industry-oriented counties achieve targeted carbon reduction and control, while simultaneously achieving rapid economic development.