A Comparative Analysis of Hidden Markov Model, Hybrid Support Vector Machines, and Hybrid Artificial Neural Fuzzy Inference System in Reservoir Inflow Forecasting (Case Study: The King Fahd Dam, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The precise prediction of the streamflow of reservoirs is of considerable importance for many activities relating to water resource management, such as reservoir operation and flood and drought control and protection. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the applicability of a hidden Markov model (HMM) and two hybrid models, i.e., the support vector machine-genetic algorithm (SVM-GA) and artificial neural fuzzy inference system-genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA), for reservoir inflow forecasting at the King Fahd dam, Saudi Arabia. The results obtained by the HMM model were compared with those for the two hybrid models ANFIS-GA and SVM-GA, and with those for individual SVM and ANFIS models based on performance evaluation indicators and visual inspection. The results of the comparison revealed that the ANFIS-GA model and ANFIS model provided superior results for forecasting monthly inflow with satisfactory accuracy in both training (R2 = 0.924, 0.857) and testing (R2 = 0.842, 0.810) models. The performance evaluation results for the developed models showed that the GA-induced improvement in the ANFIS and SVR forecasts was matched by an approximately 25% decrease in RMSE and around a 13% increase in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. The promising accuracy of the proposed models demonstrates their potential for applications in monthly inflow forecasting in the present semiarid region.