Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Urban Sprawl in a Coastal City Using GIS-Based Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

Abstract

Over the last two decades, globally coastal areas have urbanized rapidly due to various socioeconomic and demographic driving forces. However, urban expansion in towns and cities of the developing world has been characterized by entangled structures and trends exacerbating numerous negative consequences such as pollution, ecological degradation, loss of agricultural land and green areas, and deprived settlements. Substantially, spatial simulation of urban growth and their consequences on coastal areas particularly in Egypt is still very rare. Geospatial modelling coastal urban growth is crucial and has enormous potential for coastal land use transformation and urban sustainability. The key aim of this study was to analyze spatiotemporal changes (2010–2020) and simulate future dynamics (2030 to 2050) of land use/land cover (LULC) in Alexandria Governorate, Egypt. Artificial Neural Network–Multiple Layer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) and Markov Chain techniques were employed within the GIS platform to assess processes of land transitions and predict urban growth trends, patterns and dimensions. The forecasting process was based on three maps of LULC derived from classified Landsat images of 2000, 2010 and 2020. In addition, topographical, demographic, accessibility, proximity factors were generated and developed in the form of raster spatial parameters of urbanization driving forces. The findings revealed that the observed expansion of the built-up area during one decade (2010–2020) was 12,477.51 ha, with a decline in agricultural area (7440.39 ha) and bare land (4904.91 ha). The projected change was forecasted to be 71,544 ha by 2030 and 81,983 ha in 2040 with a total of 35,998 ha increase in the built-up area and residential expansion by 2050. Despite this expected pattern of rapid changes, urban growth will be shaped by the key drivers of proximity to coastline and agricultural land transformation. The analysis indicates that the vertical urban growth will be most likely dominant along the coastal zone due to the lack of vacant lands, whereas the horizontal urban expansion will primarily take place towards the east-northeastern and south-southeastern directions of the city. The present work provides a holistic framework for establishing initial coastal land use plans not only for planners and urban administrators in Alexandria but also for policymakers and coastal municipalities in developing nations.