Using Particle Swarm Optimization with Backpropagation Neural Networks and Analytic Hierarchy Process to Optimize the Power Generation Performance of Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS)

Abstract

The optimization of the production scheme for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in geothermal fields is crucial for enhancing heat production efficiency and prolonging the lifespan of thermal reservoirs. In this study, the 4100–4300 m granite diorite stratum in the Zhacang geothermal field was taken as the target stratum to establish a numerical model of water-heat coupling of three vertical wells. However, relying solely on numerical simulation for optimization is time-consuming and challenging for the determination of the globally optimal production plan. The present study proposes a comprehensive evaluation method for optimizing the performance of EGS power generation based on the integration of particle swarm optimization with backpropagation neural network (PSO-BPNN) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Five different PSO-BPNN models were constructed based on the numerical simulation data to predict different EGS power generation performance indexes, including the production temperature, the injection pressure, the total electricity generation, the electric energy efficiency and the levelized cost of electricity. Based on these PSO-BPNN models, the weights of various thermal development evaluation indexes were calculated by AHP to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the power generation performance of the three vertical wells EGS. The results show that the PSO-BPNN model has good prediction accuracy for EGS prediction of various performance indicators, with a coefficient of determination (R2) exceeding 0.999. The AHP evaluation of all production schemes reveals that the optimal power generation scheme entails a well spacing of 580 m, water injection rate of 56 kg/s, injection temperature of 38 °C and fracture permeability of 2.0 × 10−10 m2. Over a span of 30 years, this scheme can provide a total power generation capacity amounting to 1775 GWh, with an associated LCOE value of 0.03837 USD/kWh. This not only provides a reference for the development and optimization of geothermal systems in the Zhacang geothermal field but also provides a new idea for the optimization design of other geothermal projects.