Asymmetric Effects of Economic Development, Agroforestry Development, Energy Consumption, and Population Size on CO2 Emissions in China

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict have led to a global food and energy crisis, making the world aware of the importance of agroforestry development for a country. Modern agriculture mechanization leads to massive energy consumption and increased CO2 emissions. At the same time, China is facing serious demographic problems and a lack of consumption in the domestic market. The Chinese government is faced with the dilemma of balancing environmental protection with economic development in the context of the “double carbon” strategy. This article uses annual World Bank statistics from 1990 to 2020 to study the asymmetric relationships between agroforestry development, energy consumption, population size, and economic development on CO2 emissions in China using the partial least squares path model (PLS-PM), the autoregressive VAR vector time series model, and the Granger causality test. The results are as follows: (1) The relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions, agroforestry development and carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and population size and carbon dioxide emissions are both direct and indirect, with an overall significant positive effect. There is a direct negative relationship between population size and carbon dioxide emissions. (2) The results of the Granger causality test show that economic development, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions are the causes of the development of agroforestry; economic development, agroforestry development, population size, and CO2 emissions are the causes of energy consumption; energy consumption is the cause of economic development and CO2 emissions; and agroforestry development is the cause of population size and energy consumption. (3) In the next three years, China’s agroforestry development will be influenced by the impulse response of economic development, energy consumption, and CO2 emission factors, showing a decreasing development trend. China’s energy consumption will be influenced by the impulse response of economic development, agroforestry development, population size, and CO2 emission factors, showing a decreasing development trend, followed by an increasing development trend. China’s CO2 emission will be influenced by the impulse response of energy consumption and agroforestry development. China’s CO2 emissions will be influenced by the impulse response of energy consumption and agroforestry development factors, showing a downward and then an upward development trend.