Climate-Streamflow Relationship and Consequences of Its Instability in Large Rivers of Pakistan: An Elasticity Perspective

Abstract

Precipitation elasticity provides a basic estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term precipitation, and it is especially useful as the first assessment of climate change impact in land and water resource projects. This study estimated and compared the precipitation elasticity (εp) of streamflow in 86 catchments within Pakistan over 50 major rivers using three widely used analytical models: bivariate nonparametric (NP) estimator, multivariate NP analysis, and multivariate double logarithm (DL) model. All the three models gave similar values of elasticity in the range of 0.1–3.5 for over 70–75% of the catchments. This signifies that a 1% change in the annual mean precipitation compared to the long-term historic mean annual precipitation will amplify the streamflow by 0.1–3.5%. In addition, the results suggested that elasticity estimation of streamflow sensitivity using the multivariate DL model is more reliable and realistic. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is observed high at altitudes ranging between 250 m and 1000 m while the longitudinal and latitudinal pattern of εp shows higher values in the range of 70–75 and 32–36 decimal degrees, respectively. The εp values were found to have a direct relationship with the mean annual precipitation and an inverse relationship with the catchment areas. Likewise, high εp values were noticed in areas where the mean annual temperature ranges between 15 and 24 °C.