Statistical Analysis of the Correlation between Geomagnetic Storm Intensity and Solar Wind Parameters from 1996 to 2023

Abstract

The occurrence of space weather events, notably geomagnetic storms driven by various solar wind structures, can significantly alter Earth’s electromagnetic environment. In this study, we examined the interplanetary origins and statistical distribution of 384 geomagnetic storms (Dstmin ≤ −50 nT) that occurred from September 1996 to December 2023. We statistically analyzed the correlations between storm intensity and solar wind parameters (SWPs) across different subsets. The results indicate that (1) the solar activity level, indicated by the sunspot number (SSN), and the number of geomagnetic storms during the first four years of the 25th solar cycle were intermediate, compared to the first four years of the 23rd and 24th solar cycles. Specifically, ICME-related structures caused 80% of the strong storms (Dstmin ≤ −100 nT) and 34% of the moderate storms (−100 nT < Dstmin ≤ −50 nT) from 2020 to 2023. (2) The storm intensity correlated with the peak and/or time-integral values of the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bs), the dawn–dusk electric field (Ey), the Akasofu’s function (ε), and dynamic pressure (Psw) to varying extents. Strong storms exhibited higher correlation levels than moderate ones and ICME-related storms showed larger correlation levels compared to those driven by other sources. (3) Compared with the storms from 1996-09 to 2000-08, the storms that occurred from 2020 to 2023 had lower correlations with the peak values of the IMF Bs and Ey but higher correlations with the peak value of ε and the time-integral values of the IMF Bs, Ey, Psw, and ε. (4) Among the 174 events that featured continuous southward IMF during the storm’s main phase, the duration of southward IMF during about 66.7% of moderate storms and 51.5% of strong storms were less than 13 h. Continuous southward IMF resulted in more direct and efficient energy coupling, enhancing the correlation between the peak values of SWPs and storm intensity but weakening the relationships with the time-integral values of SWPs. Notably, when the southward IMF persisted for a longer duration (e.g., ∆t > 13 h), the continuous energy input further enhanced correlations with both peak and integral values of SWPs, leading to stronger overall correlations with storm intensity. This analysis sheds light on the intricate relationships between geomagnetic storms and their solar wind drivers, emphasizing the significant influence of ICME-related structures and the duration of southward IMF on storm intensity.