Flash Drought Characteristics Based on U.S. Drought Monitor

Abstract

Understanding the characteristics of flash drought events and further predicting the onset of such events on subseasonal timescales is of critical importance for impact assessment, disaster mitigation, and loss prevention. In this study, we employ a rate-of-change approach and define a flash drought event as a drought event with greater than or equal to two categories degradation in a four-week period based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Unlike conventional drought, which can occur year-round and everywhere in the United States, flash drought has preferred seasons and locations to occur, mostly in the warm season and over the central United States. Widespread flash drought over the United States is largely correlated with La Niña episodes. In contrast with conventional drought, which is mainly driven by precipitation deficits, anomalously high evapotranspiration rates, caused by anomalously high temperatures, winds, and/or incoming radiation, are usually present before the onset of flash drought. Comparing to precipitation and soil moisture, evapotranspiration typically has the largest decline rate during the fast-development phase. Three-month Standardized Precipitation Indexes are mostly dry right before flash drought onset, but large deficits are not required. As a result, monitoring rapid changes in evapotranspiration, along with precipitation and soil moisture conditions, can provide early warnings of flash drought development.