Variation in Dipole Blocking Associated with Arctic Warming in Winter: Potential Contributions to Cold and Extremely Cold Events over Eurasia

Abstract

In this study, the barotropic mode of thermal forcing responsible for the difference in temperature between the Arctic and midlatitude regions was simplified by the nonlinear Schrӧdinger equation with disturbance terms using multiscale perturbation methods. The impact of Arctic warming on dipole blocking, which results in temperature anomalies over the midlatitudes of Eurasia, was studied using the direct perturbation theory for solitons. The results showed: (1) if only nonlinear effects exist between waves and zonal flows, a dipole blocking structure can present in the westerly air flows; (2) the temperature gradient between midlatitude warming and Arctic cooling inhibits the development of dipole blocking structures; and (3) Arctic warming is theoretically more conducive to intensifying the strength of dipole blocking and meridional activities over Eurasia and is more likely to cause the southward invasion of cold air from the Arctic, thereby inducing regionally cold and even extremely cold events in the mid- and low latitudes of Eurasia, including eastern China.