The Coupling Relationship and Driving Factors of Fertilizer Consumption, Economic Development and Crop Yield in China

Abstract

China has become the largest consumer of chemical fertilizers. The excessive application of chemical fertilizers has resulted in a series of problems including environmental pollution, seriously threatening China’s sustainable development. Therefore, it is highly important to study the factors driving chemical fertilizer consumption. In this study, we used the panel data of 31 provinces in China and the Tapio decoupling model to explore the coupling relationship between fertilizer consumption, economic growth and crop yield increase, build the IPAT-LMDI model, and identify and analyze the factors driving the observed changes. The results show the following: (1) Since 2015, the consumption of chemical fertilizers in most provinces of China has decreased significantly, and the implementation of the zero-fertilizer policy in various regions has generally achieved remarkable results. (2) Since 1980, China’s crop production and economic development have undergone coordinated growth, but the decoupling relationship between chemical fertilizer consumption and economic growth has changed from weak to strong, and the dependence of China’s crop production on chemical fertilizers has gradually been reduced. (3) Fertilizer consumption in China is promoted by factors related to economic level (Pg), crop value (Cval), fertilizer efficiency (Feff), fertilization intensity (Fein), per capita arable land area (Clap) and population size (P), while it is restrained by factors related to science and technology level (Ffag), agricultural population (P1) and industrial structure (Inst). (4) Fertilizer consumption has arrived at its peak in East China, South China and Central China, while there is still room for growth in the western areas; gaps in economic and technological development between different provinces are the main factors affecting changes in fertilizer consumption. Finally, we offer specific suggestions for improving the efficiency of chemical fertilizers from the perspectives of farming modes and science and technology.