Elite Speech about Climate Change: Analysis of Sentiment from the United Nations Conference of Parties, 1995–2021

Abstract

The Conference of Parties (COP) is the longest running forum for international discussion of climate change and offers rich data in the form of speeches. Studying how elites have historically communicated about climate change can help us understand their approaches to address climate change. In this study, we analyzed 2493 COP statements from 1995 to 2021 to describe how sentiment is used, and to see whether specific issues associated with climate policy (adaptation, mitigation, financing, development, disasters) are discussed in particular sentiment contexts. Quantitative analysis (sentiment analysis with multi-level modelling) revealed that leaders expressed high levels of positive sentiment in these diplomatic statements, but also some negative sentiment. Over time, representatives at COP used more positive, angry, and fearful sentiments in speeches. Representatives of wealthier and more developed countries expressed themselves differently than those from less wealthy and developing countries. To examine sentiment surrounding policy issues we used embedding regression. Countries expressed different sentiments about adaptation, mitigation, and development depending on their development status, and about disasters depending on their wealth. Shifts in sentiment over time were observed when results were plotted graphically, and these shifts may be related to specific events and agreements. Using these two approaches, we highlight how those with the power to make top-down changes to address climate change have historically talked about this issue.