Prediction of Ship-Unloading Time Using Neural Networks

Abstract

The prediction of unloading times is crucial for reducing demurrage costs and ensuring the smooth scheduling of downstream processes in a steel plant. The duration of unloading a cargo ship is primarily determined by the unloading schedule established at the raw materials terminal and the storage operation schedule implemented in the stockyard. This study aims to provide an accurate forecast of unloading times for incoming ships at the raw materials terminal of a steel plant. We propose three neural network-based methods: the Backpropagation Neural Network (BP), the Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL), and the Stochastic Configurations Network (SCN) for this prediction. This issue has not been previously researched using similar methods, particularly in the context of large-scale steel plants. The performance of these three methods is evaluated based on several indices: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the quality of the best solution, convergence, and stability, which are employed for predicting unloading times. The prediction accuracies achieved by the BP, RVFL, and SCN were 76%, 85%, and 87%, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and potential applications of the proposed methods.